Fred Thompson’s Magic Carpet — Lymphoma, 2008 and the VP choice
Until Fred Thompson became a candidate with his declaration on the Leno Show, conservatives - for the most part - didn’t have a “first-tier” candidate in the Republican primary that really got them excited about the upcoming 2008 Presidential race in spite of the general recognition that a 2008 Democratic victory would be a tragedy for nation. (Fred ‘08 website)
Unfortunately, it takes an actual candidate to win an election. In the US we are only allowed to vote “for” a candidate and not “against,” “anybody but Hillary,” or “none of the above.”
Rudy and Mitt, for many on the Right, are “compromise candidates.” It isn’t that Rudy and Mitt are disliked on the Right. On the contrary, they enjoy wide respect for being “Yankee Republicans” that have managed to get elected in the nearly “solid blue” Northeast. That said, they are not viewed (by many in the GOP) as “brethren” in a struggle that predates the “Reagan Revolution.” Furthermore, their recent conciliatory moves to the Right are viewed more as expedient political maneuvers, rather true “conversions” to the conservative point of view.
The lack of a candidate that “connected” with the so-called “Republican base” allowed Fred to remain the “stealth” candidate for months. He has had the luxury of seeming very “presidential” by avoiding the primary race’s “squabbles.” In the absence of definitively stated policy positions - made necessary during the “typical” primary process - the former senator continues to make the most of his Law and Order television persona, Arthur Branch, a southern conservative turned Big Apple prosecutor. (Shouldn’t that story line have premiered on the SciFi Channel first?) As such, he has been portrayed week, after week, season, after season, as the wise, all-knowing, “down home” and folksy older (but not elderly) boss that explains to his urban, mostly liberal staff, the conservative positions of the day using rural southern anecdotes that are conveniently, debated, and poignantly resolved in the 60-minute prime time episodes of Law and Order. We doubt that NBC ever imagined that they were creating a conservative icon when the created Thompson’s character.
But there is a cloud on Thompson’s horizon - politically and personally. Could a page from the Democratic history book, Paul Tsongas’ presidential campaign of 1992, be repeated? (NY Sun, “Thompson’s Cancer Stirs Memories of Tsongas” and National Review, “The Tsongas Problem”) Paul was Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party primary rival who made the contest a real “horse race,” until he suddenly dropped out. Like Tsongas, Thompson returned to politics to run for President after a stint in the Senate. Also like Tsongas, when he entered the race, relatively positive prognoses were stated by the candidate, his staff, and a variety of “experts.” What’s not known is whether the parallels between Thompson and Tsongas include the deceptions (or the gentler description “lack of clarity” used by Tsongas) made by the 1992 Tsongas campaign regarding his recurrence of cancer and his prognosis.
(Red State, Fred Thompson’s Statement, “What you need to know — Facts about my cancer”
Nobody on his deathbed ever said, “I wish I had spent more time at the office.” Paul Tsongas Could Fred have shared this sentiment with Paul and then have left the Senate for an acting career?
Interestingly, Paul Tsongas died January 18, 1997, in what would have been the final days of his administration had he won the 1992 election. (If this would have happened in the Clinton administration, think of how many pardons he never could have sold, er… granted.) Does anybody doubt that Tsongas’ ability to govern effectively would have been affected during the final months of his administration as he was dying? Could the same thing happen to Thompson? Granted, the statistics on survival of patients diagnosed with Thompson’s relatively rare form of lymphoma are encouraging, but what about patients’ subjected high levels of stress - you know, like serving as President of the United States? That’s where the theory of Fred’s “Magic Carpet” comes in to play. (Jeremy D. Mayer at Politico.com, “Is Death on the Ballot in 2008?”)
The closer Fred Thompson gets to the nomination, the greater attention will be paid to his VP choice — especially in light of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll just released (Rudy 30%, Fred 23%, McCain 15%, Romney 10%, Huckabee 4%). This is the so called “magic carpet track” into the Oval Office, the Vice-Presidency on a ticket with a partner that has a fair chance of not completing their term in office. At anytime, a future President Thompson (or Giuliani, a cancer survivor himself) could declare that he is unable to carry out his duties and elevate the VP to the Presidency. Is this a likely scenario? We think so.
Another issue for the Thompson campaign is his “gender gap.” In the WSJ/NBC poll, he only had a little more than half the support among Republican women, 16%, than he showed among Republican men, 29%. This gap is made even more urgent by Rudy’s strong support among female Republicans in the same poll (25% male, 35% female). If Fred is the eventual nominee and doesn’t take decisive action, we suspect that this gender gap would grow larger during the general election. Although a female VP choice is a possibility for either candidate, this makes us think that Thompson would be more likely to choose a female VP than Rudy. For Fred, it is absolutely essential that he improve his support among women for the primary and the general election. Is Condi on Fred’s “short list?” Or someone else’s? Makes one wonder, doesn’t it? (Interesting Trivia: Both Condi and Fred are native Alabamans.)
October 7th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
To whom it may concern,
I am a democrat and an admirer of Dr. Rice. If she were to run for president, for the first time in my life, I would vote republican. I have been following your website “Americans for Dr. Rice” over the years and have hoped, like you, that she would be the GOP nominee, and perhaps even before that, Cheney’s replacement as VP, which would open up the arena for her as “heir apparent” to the White House. From this blog and “Liveblogging from Mackinac Island” (Think Condi), I get the impression that you have given up on the idea of her running for president in 2008 and that you are encouraging a lesser position for which she is over
qualified as a VP. She is much more qualified than any of the candidates to date, so her being VP for any of them is a slap in the face, a non-sense. Can you tell me if there is really a “ray of hope” that she could be our next president or must we settle for second best?
Sincerely,
Price King
P.S. There are many democrats who would rather see Dr. Rice as president than Hillary.
***Editor’s note: Your insight is impressive, indeed. This has been a MAJOR point of discussion for Condi supporters. Last year, the majority of us were determined to work towards Condi in 2008 — exclusively. The image of a Condi vs Hillary contest (the inspiration for Dick Morris’ book) was intoxicating for many of us. However, as time has marched on, we have come to the realization that if we continue to ignore the Vice-Presidency and 2012 (and beyond) that we may be short-changing Dr. Rice. There may be many reasons why a presidential run in 2008, no matter how badly we would like to see it, isn’t going to happen. So, while we continue to hope for a “last-minute reprieve” for our hopes for 2008, we do not want to ignore reality and any of the paths that will lead Dr. Rice to the Oval Office — whenever she may choose to do so.
There are many, many rumors surrounding why 2008 may not be “Condi’s year” — but none substantiated. She may wish to secure her financial future, and that of her small extended family, as well as get her memories of the past and her vision for the future into print by writing a book without the political concerns and limitations imposed on her by personal loyalty and by being a member of a sitting administration. She may have medical conditions that she wishes to handle privately. She may just want an extended vacation! She may want to catch up on all of the episodes of “West Wing,” “24,” and “Nip and Tuck” that she has missed. None of us really knows. However, our personal recommendation, if she decides not to run in 2008 and return to California, is to watch “Flip this House,” in light of Stanford and its stratospheric real estate prices.
October 9th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Let me be clear. Speculation about Fred’s health by people who are seen to be supporting Rice is not helpful to Rice. Fred has addressed this frankly on his website and at RedState. It is best left to Fred and his people to deal with, and let the chips fall where they may.
*** Editor’s note: True, it may not be “helpful,” but it is already in play. Just look at the links in the post: Politico.com, “Is Death on the Ballot?” or National Review “The Tsongas Problem.” This post has been sat upon for some time. We didn’t want to appear to be vultures, waiting to feed upon Thompson should his health decline. But let’s face it wIth McCain’s age, Rudy’s past prostate cancer history, Reagan’s Alzheimer’s diagnosis (albeit after leaving office), FDR’s decline in his final days, etc. this is going to be an issue. Our mentioning it here is hardly “news.” The “take home message” of the post (if anyone’s paying attention) is that Fred, as wonderful an addition to the Republican field as he is, has to get in front of the issue and not give even the appearance of the slightest degree of obfuscation. He must grant unfettered access to his medical records and state clearly how he would deal with a decline in his health while in office. This was Paul Tsongas’ legacy, and one that Fred would do well to heed.
However, Thompson’s gender gap seems to be an underreported issue, and one that we imagine will figure into his political calculation of a VP choice should he win the nomination. This is much more interesting that the “old news” of his lymphoma.
October 14th, 2007 at 4:24 am
I like what Fred has to say, and I have even gone to see him speak after his announcement as a candidate. His positions are much closer to mine than any of the other Republican candidates and he is not a Johnny come lately to the conservative movement.
However, as an oncology nurse, I think he has a definite look that says: “I am ill.” It may just be his age showing, but whether age or illness it is made worse when he stands next to his vibrant and obviously much YOUNGER AND HEALTHIER wife. This may turn off many divorced women who have gotten divorced after their husbands left them for a younger woman. And believe me, that’s a situation that millions of American women face. They should campaign separately if Mr. Thompson doesn’t want the gender gap to grow.
I’ll still vote for Fred, but I doubt that he can finish all four years of his Presidency.
***Blog editor: Comment edited for length and expletives.