Prospects for Middle East Peace
An overview of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s efforts for Middle East peace and their prospects for success appeared in an article by Jonathan Beale of the BBC (Surprise, surprise! Well, no surprise if you’re a Condista who’s had the pleasure of meeting or speaking with Mr. Beale. For a BBC reporter, he is quite the professional.) No one can divine the outcome of this most recent attempt at peace. As Mr. Beale writes, it may amount to little more than another “photo op,” but then again, like most former smokers can attest, it may take many attempts to finally “kick the habit.” In this case “the habit” is not a physical dependence, but the status quo of the cycle of terrorist violence, followed by Israeli retaliation. Who knows if this attempt will be the one that is finally successful?
Oddly the Fatah-West Bank and Hamas-Gaza split may actually augment the chance for success this time. In the past, extremists have always been able to torpedo peace efforts with violence. With Fatah needing to clearly demonstrate that they can “deliver” — at least the hope of economic progress and a better life to their constituents; they need to “make a deal.” Likewise, the Israelis, after a less than convincing victory — at least on the propaganda front – during their last incursion into Southern Lebanon need to make progress as well. A peace agreement, even a partial one, would allow Israel to concentrate its efforts on more extreme Palestinian elements — especially those that have an Iranian “connection.”