Fred Thompson’s Magic Carpet — Lymphoma, 2008 and the VP choice
Saturday, October 6th, 2007Until Fred Thompson became a candidate with his declaration on the Leno Show, conservatives - for the most part - didn’t have a “first-tier” candidate in the Republican primary that really got them excited about the upcoming 2008 Presidential race in spite of the general recognition that a 2008 Democratic victory would be a tragedy for nation. (Fred ‘08 website)
Unfortunately, it takes an actual candidate to win an election. In the US we are only allowed to vote “for” a candidate and not “against,” “anybody but Hillary,” or “none of the above.”
Rudy and Mitt, for many on the Right, are “compromise candidates.” It isn’t that Rudy and Mitt are disliked on the Right. On the contrary, they enjoy wide respect for being “Yankee Republicans” that have managed to get elected in the nearly “solid blue” Northeast. That said, they are not viewed (by many in the GOP) as “brethren” in a struggle that predates the “Reagan Revolution.” Furthermore, their recent conciliatory moves to the Right are viewed more as expedient political maneuvers, rather true “conversions” to the conservative point of view.
The lack of a candidate that “connected” with the so-called “Republican base” allowed Fred to remain the “stealth” candidate for months. He has had the luxury of seeming very “presidential” by avoiding the primary race’s “squabbles.” In the absence of definitively stated policy positions - made necessary during the “typical” primary process - the former senator continues to make the most of his Law and Order television persona, Arthur Branch, a southern conservative turned Big Apple prosecutor. (Shouldn’t that story line have premiered on the SciFi Channel first?) As such, he has been portrayed week, after week, season, after season, as the wise, all-knowing, “down home” and folksy older (but not elderly) boss that explains to his urban, mostly liberal staff, the conservative positions of the day using rural southern anecdotes that are conveniently, debated, and poignantly resolved in the 60-minute prime time episodes of Law and Order. We doubt that NBC ever imagined that they were creating a conservative icon when the created Thompson’s character.
But there is a cloud on Thompson’s horizon - politically and personally. Could a page from the Democratic history book, Paul Tsongas’ presidential campaign of 1992, be repeated? (NY Sun, “Thompson’s Cancer Stirs Memories of Tsongas” and National Review, “The Tsongas Problem”) Paul was Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party primary rival who made the contest a real “horse race,” until he suddenly dropped out. Like Tsongas, Thompson returned to politics to run for President after a stint in the Senate. Also like Tsongas, when he entered the race, relatively positive prognoses were stated by the candidate, his staff, and a variety of “experts.” What’s not known is whether the parallels between Thompson and Tsongas include the deceptions (or the gentler description “lack of clarity” used by Tsongas) made by the 1992 Tsongas campaign regarding his recurrence of cancer and his prognosis.
(Red State, Fred Thompson’s Statement, “What you need to know — Facts about my cancer”
Nobody on his deathbed ever said, “I wish I had spent more time at the office.” Paul Tsongas Could Fred have shared this sentiment with Paul and then have left the Senate for an acting career?
Interestingly, Paul Tsongas died January 18, 1997, in what would have been the final days of his administration had he won the 1992 election. (If this would have happened in the Clinton administration, think of how many pardons he never could have sold, er… granted.) Does anybody doubt that Tsongas’ ability to govern effectively would have been affected during the final months of his administration as he was dying? Could the same thing happen to Thompson? Granted, the statistics on survival of patients diagnosed with Thompson’s relatively rare form of lymphoma are encouraging, but what about patients’ subjected high levels of stress - you know, like serving as President of the United States? That’s where the theory of Fred’s “Magic Carpet” comes in to play. (Jeremy D. Mayer at Politico.com, “Is Death on the Ballot in 2008?”)
The closer Fred Thompson gets to the nomination, the greater attention will be paid to his VP choice — especially in light of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll just released (Rudy 30%, Fred 23%, McCain 15%, Romney 10%, Huckabee 4%). This is the so called “magic carpet track” into the Oval Office, the Vice-Presidency on a ticket with a partner that has a fair chance of not completing their term in office. At anytime, a future President Thompson (or Giuliani, a cancer survivor himself) could declare that he is unable to carry out his duties and elevate the VP to the Presidency. Is this a likely scenario? We think so.
Another issue for the Thompson campaign is his “gender gap.” In the WSJ/NBC poll, he only had a little more than half the support among Republican women, 16%, than he showed among Republican men, 29%. This gap is made even more urgent by Rudy’s strong support among female Republicans in the same poll (25% male, 35% female). If Fred is the eventual nominee and doesn’t take decisive action, we suspect that this gender gap would grow larger during the general election. Although a female VP choice is a possibility for either candidate, this makes us think that Thompson would be more likely to choose a female VP than Rudy. For Fred, it is absolutely essential that he improve his support among women for the primary and the general election. Is Condi on Fred’s “short list?” Or someone else’s? Makes one wonder, doesn’t it? (Interesting Trivia: Both Condi and Fred are native Alabamans.)
