Until Fred Thompson became a candidate with his declaration on the Leno Show, conservatives - for the most part - didn’t have a “first-tier” candidate in the Republican primary that really got them excited about the upcoming 2008 Presidential race in spite of the general recognition that a 2008 Democratic victory would be a tragedy for nation.  (Fred ‘08 website)

Unfortunately, it takes an actual candidate to win an election.  In the US we are only allowed to vote “for” a candidate and not “against,”  “anybody but Hillary,” or “none of the above.”

Rudy and Mitt, for many on the Right, are “compromise candidates.”  It isn’t that Rudy and Mitt are disliked on the Right.  On the contrary, they enjoy wide respect for being “Yankee Republicans” that have managed to get elected in the nearly “solid blue” Northeast.  That said, they are not viewed (by many in the GOP) as “brethren” in a struggle that predates the “Reagan Revolution.”  Furthermore, their recent conciliatory moves to the Right are viewed more as expedient political maneuvers, rather true “conversions” to the conservative point of view.

The lack of a candidate that “connected” with the so-called “Republican base” allowed Fred to remain the “stealth” candidate for months.  He has had the luxury of seeming very “presidential” by avoiding the primary race’s “squabbles.”  In the absence of definitively stated policy positions - made necessary during the “typical” primary process - the former senator continues to make the most of his Law and Order television persona, Arthur Branch, a southern conservative turned Big Apple prosecutor.  (Shouldn’t that story line have premiered on the SciFi Channel first?)  As such, he has been portrayed week, after week, season, after season, as the wise, all-knowing, “down home” and folksy older (but not elderly) boss that explains to his urban, mostly liberal staff, the conservative positions of the day using rural southern anecdotes that are conveniently, debated, and poignantly resolved in the 60-minute prime time episodes of Law and Order.  We doubt that NBC ever imagined that they were creating a conservative icon when the created Thompson’s character.

But there is a cloud on Thompson’s horizon - politically and personally.  Could a page from the Democratic history book, Paul Tsongas’ presidential campaign of 1992, be repeated?  (NY Sun, “Thompson’s Cancer Stirs Memories of Tsongas” and National Review, “The Tsongas Problem”)  Paul was Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party primary rival who made the contest a real “horse race,” until he suddenly dropped out.   Like Tsongas, Thompson returned to politics to run for President after a stint in the Senate.  Also like Tsongas, when he entered the race, relatively positive prognoses were stated by the candidate, his staff, and a variety of “experts.”   What’s not known is whether the parallels between Thompson and Tsongas include the deceptions (or the gentler description “lack of clarity” used by Tsongas) made by the 1992 Tsongas campaign regarding his recurrence of cancer and his prognosis.  (Red State, Fred Thompson’s Statement, “What you need to know — Facts about my cancer”

Nobody on his deathbed ever said, “I wish I had spent more time at the office.”   Paul Tsongas   Could Fred have shared this sentiment with Paul and then have left the Senate for an acting career?

Interestingly, Paul Tsongas died January 18, 1997, in what would have been the final days of his administration had he won the 1992 election.  (If this would have happened in the Clinton administration, think of how many pardons he never could have sold, er… granted.)  Does anybody doubt that Tsongas’ ability to govern effectively would have been affected during the final months of his administration as he was dying?  Could the same thing happen to Thompson?  Granted, the statistics on survival of patients diagnosed with Thompson’s relatively rare form of lymphoma are encouraging, but what about patients’ subjected high levels of stress - you know, like serving as President of the United States?  That’s where the theory of Fred’s “Magic Carpet” comes in to play.  (Jeremy D. Mayer at Politico.com, “Is Death on the Ballot in 2008?”)

The closer Fred Thompson gets to the nomination, the greater attention will be paid to his VP choice — especially in light of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll just released (Rudy 30%, Fred 23%, McCain 15%, Romney 10%, Huckabee 4%).  This is the so called “magic carpet track” into the Oval Office, the Vice-Presidency on a ticket with a partner that has a fair chance of not completing their term in office.  At anytime, a future President Thompson (or Giuliani, a cancer survivor himself) could declare that he is unable to carry out his duties and elevate the VP to the Presidency.  Is this a likely scenario?  We think so.

Another issue for the Thompson campaign is his “gender gap.”  In the WSJ/NBC poll, he only had a little more than half the support among Republican women, 16%, than he showed among Republican men, 29%.  This gap is made even more urgent by Rudy’s strong support among female Republicans in the same poll (25% male, 35% female).  If Fred is the eventual nominee and doesn’t take decisive action, we suspect that this gender gap would grow larger during the general election.  Although a female VP choice is a possibility for either candidate, this makes us think that Thompson would be more likely to choose a female VP than Rudy.  For Fred, it is absolutely essential that he improve his support among women for the primary and the general election.  Is Condi on Fred’s “short list?”   Or someone else’s?  Makes one wonder, doesn’t it?  (Interesting Trivia: Both Condi and Fred are native Alabamans.)

Yes, fellow Condistas, it’s true. Yesterday in Harlem, as widely reported, Condi again downplayed, without outright rejecting, in a General Tecumseh Sherman sort of way, the idea of a presidency in her future.

At a joint appearance with Representative Charles Rangel at Public School No. 154, the Harriet Tubman Learning Center, the subject of President Condoleezza Rice was initially broached by the Democrat! (From Reuters’ article by Arshad Mohammed, “Rice questioned about her sleep, fears and dreams” )

Rangel…teasingly suggested Rice aim for the White House.

“The Republican ranks for president are still open,” he told students. “We might be able to make some news this morning.”

“Charlie, don’t start,” Rice said.

Jennifer Medina of the NY Times “City Desk” in her article, “An Odd Couple Tours a Harlem School,” quoted the following exchange between Condi and the Congressman. (see below*)

Will you run for president?” one student asked.

Ms. Rice responded with a bit of an embarrassed laugh and a direct answer: “I don’t think I’m the kind of person who would run for president.”

Mr. Rangel grabbed the microphone and exclaimed, “You missed your chance to make big news today!”

We’ll parse these words soon in an upcoming blog post — at the risk of sounding like a Clinton under oath!

*He’s Chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee — and a fellow with whom Dr. Rice might like to be on friendly terms in the future. After all, she very well could face the prospect of a Democratic House in another Republican administration. (Hers, or someone else’s!) Could this be her way of setting the stage for bipartisanship — just in case she’s coaxed onto the Republican ticket? Of course Charles isn’t an uninterested party here, either. There’s been speculation that he hasn’t always appreciated the Clinton Machine (a.k.a.”The Arkansas Carpetbaggers”) setting up shop in his state as their tactics have become more heavy handed. Having a few Republican votes available to him in the future might allow him to resist Hillary’s efforts to dominate Empire State politics and give him a stronger negotiating position in legislative wrangling — making him and his committee more than just a rubber stamp for Hillary’s policy wonks. And make no mistake, Representative Rangel wants to be “a player” and not a puppet.

US News and World Report’s (USNWR) Washington Whispers, edited by Paul Bedard, has, from time to time, provided tantilizing hints of happenings inside the beltway, and most interesting to us, glimpses into Dr. Rice and her “inner circle.”  His most direct mention of Condi 2008 in Whispers, prior to his column this weekend, was May 30, 2005.  (link)

Rice Wants It–But in Draft Form
Political associates of Secretary of State Condi Rice are stirring the 2008 presidential pot on her behalf. While she takes the high road, they’re pushing her name out there. “She definitely wants to be president,” said one. But, the friend added, Rice isn’t planning on quitting to run. “She wants to be drafted,” he said.

At the time, this was an exciting development and many Condistas spent countless hours speculating as to who Bedard’s source might have been.  However, his reporting on this occasion is not quite as encouraging, being entitled Maybe Someone Should Ask Condi and he goes on to quote Tom Holt, of ThinkCondi.net, in a somewhat mocking manner –  just as the BBC reporter, Richard Allen Greene, couldn’t help but make the following observation about CPAC 2007, earlier this month.

Even Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state who has never even hinted that she might run for president next year, has a lone enthusiast hopefully bearing a red balloon saying “Condi ‘08″.

FYI, we didn’t attend CPAC, as a group, this year for a reason — it finally dawned on us that it is the Republican Party that nominates presidential candidates — and while it is always great fun to go “rub elbows” with those who share common ideological ground, we have to target our very limited resources in a very focused manner.   (There were, however, some very dedicated Condistas — from a variety of groups — that attended CPAC at their own expense to keep the message in the public eye.  Our hat’s off to them.)  The BBC’s Mr. Greene betrays his political perspective by his mischaracterization of a “lone enthusiast.”  He obviously didn’t spend much time at CPAC with the National Black Republican Association (www.NBRA.info).  The individual Condistas that attended CPAC were inundated with requests for more Condista materials.  It was a tactical decision, perhaps even a blunder, to decide not to try and compete with the well-financed machines that Mitt, Rudy, and others were fielding at CPAC this year, but there is a “method to our madness.”  (More on that later.)

By the way, Mr. Greene did go on to make the observation: “That puts Ms. Rice at least one supporter ahead of the man who announced on Wednesday that he is running for president - Senator John McCain of Arizona.”  McCain, whose support in the polls has always mystified us, because we have NEVER been able to find McCain supporters at any of a number of conservative and Republican events.  (As opposed to the many anti-McCain activists.)  The Arizona Senator’s supporters are like the aliens that crash landed in Roswell, New Mexico.  A majority of Americans (surprisingly) believe that they exist, but no concrete evidence that they are real has ever been uncovered.  Of course, considering the number of dead people that voted for Democrats in recent elections, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised.  (Just kidding, well, uh, sort of.)

Getting back to Paul Bedard at USNWR, we have, since our inception, looked to the ONLY successful presidential “draft” of the twentieth century, that of President Eisenhower as a model of how to “draft” Condi.  If one carefully studies history, they will discover that the war hero and NATO Commander (at the time), was quite reticent to accept a nomination by any party.  See our post of March 25, 2006.  (Hat tip to Josiah Schmidt for the original research.)  However, unlike the “Draft Eisenhower” movement, we are not the political heavyweights with “deep pockets” that ultimately convinced “Ike” to run.  (Draft Eisenhower)  Every Condista across the country is going to be working, each with their own individual talents, to line up the support that will be necessary to pull off what will be only be the third Republican “draft” in the past century — Eisenhower and Goldwater were the first and second, respectively.  Compared to those who drafted Ike, we’ve got a long way to go.  So, it is too early — for us — to ”ask” Condi.  (Although it almost appears to be a ritual with Sean Hannity everytime she appears on his radio show.   Of course, it can’t be such an awful question that she doesn’t keep returning for return engagements, right?)  Paul, one day it will be the right time to ask — and we’ll be here, along with many others.  Meanwhile, Secretary Rice’s efforts towards peace in the Middle East, coordination of diplomatic and military efforts around the globe, etc. are keeping her “dance card” pretty full right now.  Distracting her with any concern of an election at this time would politicize everything she is doing.  However, will she ultimately make that decision?  For that, we’ll quote, yet again, Mark Goldblatt of the American Spectator:

“…she’s said that she has no plans to run, that she won’t run, that her real ambition is to become commissioner of the National Football League. But I believe Rice is first and foremost a patriot, and if a case were put forward that campaigning for president were an act of service to her country, rather than service to her ego, she might reconsider.”

Negative campaigning is just a fact of life these days on the American political landscape.  Once a political figure starts being viewed as a potential candidate, it is almost a certainty that the attacks and mudslinging will follow.  Take this CBS News graphic, for example.  Newt isn’t even declared and he’s included in negative mainstream media coverage!

When Condi becomes a candidate will she be able to become the next Teflon President?  (Reagan was the first.)  See our homepage post on Anita Kumar’s St. Petersburg Times article.

What are the most likely areas that the jackals of the liberal media machine will focus on?  How can we best prepare for the negative attacks — because you know it’s coming.

Robin Williams is Candidate Tom Dobbs

The concept of a female president is increasingly finding it’s way into popular culture. Robin Williams, while promoting his new movie Man of the Year, a comedy about a comedian that runs for President and wins, spoke about the race in 2008 during an interview with Susan Wloszczyna, of USA Today.

The comic believes that 2008 could bring a female candidate into the presidential race. And who better than Oprah Winfrey.

“It would be great to see her in a debate,” Williams says. “It would be a pay-per-view debate, her and Condoleezza Rice. And once the Stanford stuff drops …” He holds out his hand, as if halting traffic. ” Girl, I tell you, mm, mm.’ Two brilliant black women going at it. It would be amazing. And if they have a talent section, I know Condoleezza would win that because of the cello. No one has seen Oprah do an interpretative ballet.”

(Interviewer) Yes, but she could do a scene from “Beloved.”

(Williams) “It would be great if she did a scene from “Beloved” while Condoleezza played the cello. You could pay for the whole election that way just with the CD, DVD, ancillary rights - and the sweater.”

Official movie website, Universal Pictures website, opens this weekend, Friday, October 13, 2006. (Isn’t that supposed to be bad luck?)