Please note: As far as we are aware, there’s no underlying racial implication to the expression, “The Black Swan.” Rather, it is the title of Nissam Nicholas Taleb’s book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, released in April, 2007. With a penchant for citing philosophers and writers that (with luck) most of us haven’t heard about since freshman Philosophy 101 and Western Civilization 101, the book describes how we all handle, or mishandle in many cases, situations that involve the highly improbable, or what the writer terms “black swans.”

Taleb is a Wall Street refugee who is reinventing himself as an author and philosopher.  How well has he done that?  That’s up to the individual reader, and we suspect, how closely one feels that his treatise confirms, or refutes, their own ideas.

So, how does this impact Condi? In a variety of ways, but the most direct application is 9-11, which he uses as an example of a “black swan” phenomenon.   (NYT Op-ed, from Fooled by Randomness blog)  If Taleb’s theory gains widespread acceptance, there are negative political implications for those, mostly Democrats, who are trying to assign blame for the attack in order to gain political advantage. A key part of their strategy for 2008 will be to try and attach President Bush’s lower approval ratings, fueled by the non-stop 9-11 and War on Terror-related liberal media attacks that pass for journalism these days, to any prominent Republican – Condi included. She is especially vulnerable to being targeted due to her high profile in the current administration and reputation for a “Teflon” coating that keeps her approval ratings considerably above those of many of her colleagues.

However, Condi herself is a “black swan.” Her personal history of growing up in segregated Alabama, seeking higher education, teaching, administering, and a life of public service is itself a highly improbable career trajectory. But when coupled with her ability to ascend to the Presidency one day, her status as a “black swan” is a certainty.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book is available at Amazon, Barnes&Noble, and in downloadable audio at Audible.com

In response to Bill Clinton’s outburst to Chris Wallace on FOX News, Condoleezza Rice set the record straight.  Bill said that he did everything he could to fight terorism while president.  He said he even a left a complete plan on how to fight Al-Qaeda for Bush.  He then concluded that Bush did nothing for 8 months.

     Condoleezza responded yesterday morning.  She said no such plan was left for the Bush administration. 

     Hillary Clinton, in the first lob of the 2008 Presidential race,  defended Clinton’s treatment of the terrorist threat.  She then said that Clinton wasn’t the one who ignored a report titled “Bin Ladin determined to attack within the United States”.

    Condistas already know about that report.  it was discussed during the 9/11 hearings.  Dr. Rice was on the stand when Sen. Biden asked her the title of the report.  After she responded with the title, she tried to explain that the report gave no details about when or where the attacks would be.  Sen. Biden interrupted , of course.  He said he just asked for the title. 

    There is a bigger picture here:  Hillary took this opprtunity to politicize the War on Terror and 9/11.  Condoleezza in her staterments this morning made it cleat that we shouldn’t be finger-pointing and blaming each other over this. 

   We can count on more of this from the Democrats as 2008 approaches. 

Producer Linda Ellman (Linda Ellman Productions) was concerned that her documentary, On Native Soil, would be overshadowed by other 9-11 related programming for the 5th Anniversary of the terrorist attack that changed America even though she was able to get Kevin Costner and Hilary Swank to narrate. (Swank spells her first name with only one “L.”). She was right, but like the “Tortoise & the Hare” she may win the “prize” in the long-term. On Native Soil is destined to become the definitive documentary for 9-11 education in the future UNLESS it receives critical examination. What our children and grandchildren are taught in school for years to come may be affected. A look at the reviews in the Paramus Post (review), Military.com (review), Variety (review), reflect its growing acceptance. Lending further to its credibility, conspiracy theorists have attacked it. (link 911Truth.org “Filmic 9/11 Fiction Wars: Whose Official Story Fantasies will Prevail?”). Even the ostensibly “mainstream media” Variety review closes with a reference to Fahrenheit 9-11. (Now there’s an authoritative source for you!)

“On Native Soil” breaks no new ground and studiously avoids some slippery older turf — making no reference to the seven-minute lag time after an aide informed President Bush that the country was under attack, perhaps the most damning moment in “Fahrenheit 911.” Nevertheless, “Soil” admirably documents a story that somehow feels as if it’s been told too often and still can’t be told too much.

New York Magazine reviews it in an article, “More Inconvenient Truths,” with negative comments that are another attempt by the Left to drag down any prominent Republican, including Condi, with 9-11 baggage. ?begins with the families of the victims of 9/11 insisting on an official investigation of the terror attacks while a shame-faced government tries to stonewall. The film then dips in and out of the subsequent testimony (bring in the clowns: Condoleezza Rice, Norman Mineta, George Tenet), while underlining still-unanswered questions? (Blog Editor’s note: Mineta, a Democrat appointed by Bush 43, was the longest serving Secretary of Transportation in US history. CIA Director George Tenet was a Clinton administration appointee “holdover.” So much for bipartisanship!)

Any production that repeatedly cites the rabidly Democratic partisan Max Cleland needs to be looked at very carefully. Why was he so prominently featured? This was supposed to be a documentary based on the 9-11 Commission report. Cleland resigned from the commission citing “stonewalling” by the Republican administration. Do you think he might have just a small political axe to grind? Of all of the material Ellman had to choose from, why choose extensive footage of Cleland’s opinions and pontificating? Broadcast & Cable’s “BC Beat” review cites the producer’s dilemma: She went on to explain that she compiled hundreds of 10-15 second sound bites into a 24-hour documentary. In order to put it on TV, she had whittled the footage down to 88 minutes. Because Bill Clinton, Sandy Berger, and others complained about the ABC documentary, The Path to 9-11, very little attention was paid to On Native Soil. It “slipped under the radar” because it wasn’t aired on one of the major national networks, although cable’s Court TV isn’t shabby, either. (link to Court TV’s “On Native Soil” website, 911Report.com) After thinly veiled threats of lawsuits and licensing problems in the future (assuming a Democratic administration in 2008) ABC, in addition to post-production editing and “docudrama disclaimers” for The Path to 9-11, pulled many of the “educational materials” that were to be distributed for teachers while discussing 9-11 in conjunction with classroom showings of the mini-series. However, no such outcry came for post-production editing or disclaimers for On Native Soil, and Court TV prominently features these educational materials, lesson plans, etc. for use by teachers. Of course, they would like to stimulate DVD sales to schools and libraries across the country, too. (Court TV’s web page for On Native Soil Education Resources) If you haven’t seen it, it is worth the rental — clips of this “documentary” will be shoved in Condi’s face and learning how to respond to the implication left by On Native Soil that Dr. Rice lied to the 9-11 Commission will be imperative.