The American Left and our terrorist enemies are setting themselves up for a big “I told you so” regarding the Annapolis Middle East Conference that officially starts tomorrow.  (Unofficially, it has already begun.  EuroNews article and video; AFP, “Rice in diplomatic flurry ahead of Mideast peace talks”)

In contrast to Secretary of State Rice’s “failure is not an option” statement regarding the objectives of the conference, expectations for success have been, generally, characterized as modest or even low.  (Baltimore Sun, “Failure is not an option.” by David Wood)  True, how much can be accomplished in a single day?  But as has been widely reported, the conference has been “front loaded” with “pre-negotiations” including visits by Prime Minister Olmert and President Abbas to the White House. 

Just the fact that the Saudis and the Syrians are going to be present is an accomplishment in itself and may lower the threshold to their participation in the future. 

Ninety percent of success is just showing up. 
Woody Allen 

Of course, the Syrians and the Saudis have both downplayed their participation and the chances for success in their domestic (state controlled) media outlets — not wanting to appear overly friendly with Washington or Israel.  In reality, both of these Arab states see the conference as a forum for their respective positions on their own “pet” issues, especially the Golan Heights for Syria, and if they score a few diplomatic points with Washington in order to hedge their bets against a future nuclear-armed Iran, so much the better.  (Alsumaria, “Assad and Ahmadinejad: Annapolis Conference to Fail”)

What is a more disturbing than the expected negativity from Iran’s Ayatollahs is reading about the politically motivated opinions of “experts” in the US media, such as the Sun article, where reporter David Wood quotes the “heavyweights” Lee Hamilton (of the quickly forgotten Iraq Surrender Study Group) and Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was White House national security adviser under President Jimmy Carter. (Now there’s an entry on your resume that you’d like to forget!  Instead of “heavyweights,” shouldn’t he have written ”has beens?”)  It seems that these guys are on almost the same page as Ahmadinejad and Iran’s ruling Ayatollahs when it comes to prospects for Annapolis! 

Hamilton, along with Brzezinski and six other foreign policy heavyweights, wrote to Bush and Rice last month warning that failure at Annapolis “risks devastating consequences” in the Middle East because it would undercut moderates.  (Blog Editor: Kinda like in 2000, when President Clinton’s Camp David get together failed, right?)

Robert Little, also of the Baltimore Sun, quotes Aaron David Miller, a Woodrow Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar who doesn’t mind criticizing his own board members (Condi currently sits on the Wilson Center’s Board of Trustees) in his November 25, 2007, ominously titled article, “Rice’s legacy on the line at Annapolis conference.”

“She’s about a year or so away from being judged as a kind of inconsequential secretary of state,” said Aaron David Miller

That takes chutzpah from a guy who proudly lists himself on his Wilson Center bio as a ”Former Advisor to six Secretaries of State on Arab-Israeli Negotiations, 1978-2003….Expertise (in) U.S.-Middle East relations; Arab-Israeli negotiations; Arab world and Palestinian politics; Israeli politics”  (Notice that does NOT include Dr. Rice’s tenure as Secretary of State)  Let’s see, how many “comprehensive” Arab-Israeli peace accords were concluded during that period?  ZERO.  Maybe without his advice, Condi will do better than her predecessors.  She certainly would be in a better position with some bipartisan support, but no such luck.  Also, Mr. Little neglected to mention in his article that Miller has a book coming out next year, America and the Much Too Promised Land: The Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace.  It would be disastrous for his book sales if peace just started breaking out all over the Middle East.  Further evidence that his opinions, to which he is fully entitled to have and communicate, may be weighted down with ideological baggage was a June 19, 2007, Washington Post op-ed that he co-authored with Robert Malley: “West Bank First: It won’t work.”  (Blog Editor: We don’t mean to imply that Dr. Miller’s writings are economically influenced, but we do find these facts about his point-of-view interesting and wish that they would have been mentioned in the Sun article.  Some aspects of his work are quite beneficial to the cause of peace, such as his work with Seeds of Peace.)

Achieving any progress towards Middle East peace in one day is difficult enough no matter how much diplomatic preparation has been undertaken.  Partisan reporting and criticism only make peace that much more “elusive” (to use Miller’s book title), but that’s exactly the point.  The undermining of peace efforts in order to gain political or personal advantage for 2008, and beyond, is just another obstacle that our Secretary of State, unfortunately, must overcome.

The Annapolis Middle East Conference, scheduled to begin tomorrow, has already accomplished something that has been difficult for the US to achieve in the past.  It has managed to irritate Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hamas! 

The often bellicose Ahmadinejad has been whining to Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah by telephone about the kingdom’s participation.  Hamas, an Iranian client organization and terrorist proxy, has announced a “counter-conference” in response to Annapolis.  (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and a few of their sympathizers are going to sit around for a couple hours and blame all of their problems on the US, Israel, and the International Zionist Conspiracy.  We suggest that an Arabic translation of It’s my party, and I’ll cry if I want to be used as the event’s theme song.)

(Agence France-Presse, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, al-Bawaba)

In announcements by United Jewish Communities (UJC) and the State Department, the appearance of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to speak about the upcoming Annapolis Middle East Peace Conference at the November 13, 2007, Nashville gathering of the UJC was confirmed.

“(The) United Jewish Communities represents and serves 155 Jewish federations and 400 independent Jewish communities across North America.” (taken from the UJC website)

In a David Neff article appearing in Christianity Today, October 30, 2007, the details of a meeting between Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and several evangelical leaders spelled out the framework with which she is pursuing Middle East diplomacy leading up to the Annapolis summit.  This is a must read for Condistas everywhere.

In preparation for further Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations, Secretary of State Rice is doing her homework — even speaking with former President Carter and former Secretary of State Madeline Albright — in order to be ready to exploit any potential breakthrough at the upcoming Annapolis conference without hesitation by knowing what has worked, and what hasn’t, in the past.  Likewise, she has ordered the State Department’s historian to compile an extensive, classified history of past US brokered Middle East peace efforts.  (Matthew Lee, Associated Press, article)

Although peace in the Middle East has been elusive for decades, will Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s “spiritual passion” be the catalyst that begins the long, arduous march towards that long sought after goal? Even the Washington Post is reporting on the possibility. (link, “Rice Draws on ‘Spiritual Passion’ in Push for Peace”)

An overview of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s efforts for Middle East peace and their prospects for success appeared in an article by Jonathan Beale of the BBC (Surprise, surprise!  Well, no surprise if you’re a Condista who’s had the pleasure of meeting or speaking with Mr. Beale.  For a BBC reporter, he is quite the professional.)  No one can divine the outcome of this most recent attempt at peace.  As Mr. Beale writes, it may amount to little more than another “photo op,” but then again, like most former smokers can attest, it may take many attempts to finally “kick the habit.”  In this case “the habit” is not a physical dependence, but the status quo of the cycle of terrorist violence, followed by Israeli retaliation.  Who knows if this attempt will be the one that is finally successful?

Oddly the Fatah-West Bank and Hamas-Gaza split may actually augment the chance for success this time.  In the past, extremists have always been able to torpedo peace efforts with violence.  With Fatah needing to clearly demonstrate that they can “deliver” — at least the hope of economic progress and a better life to their constituents; they need to “make a deal.”  Likewise, the Israelis, after a less than convincing victory — at least on the propaganda front –  during their last incursion into Southern Lebanon need to make progress as well.  A peace agreement, even a partial one, would allow Israel to concentrate its efforts on more extreme Palestinian elements — especially those that have an Iranian “connection.”

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice disappointed a lot of Russians who thought that they might get the chance to see her don ice skates before she left after her recent visit. Wisely, she demurred. Had her “on ice” performance been anything less than perfection, the most embarrassing moment would have been turned into “Condi’s ice follies” and been plastered on front pages around the globe. (”One diplomatic encounter - and hold the ice,” Independent Online, South Africa) Likewise, she is downplaying her chances of success in the Middle East as she heads toward the region for this week’s shuttle diplomacy. (CTV, Canada)

However, in light of recent events in Syria — an Israeli air strike on a military installation that apparently was a site being used to further Syria’s nuclear ambitions — it is astonishing that Condi’s trip is even taking place. More astonishing is the deafening silence from all sides after the fact.  (NYT, “Israel Struck Syrian Nuclear Project, Analysts Say”)

The silence indicates; that other than the likes of Iran’s Ahmadinejad, Al Qaeda, Saudi Arabia’s hard line Wahabis, the Muslim Brotherhood, etc.; there might be a small ray of sanity illuminating the Middle East.

• Syria’s quiet because it doesn’t want to publicly acknowledge that their air defenses are obviously ineffective.
• Israel’s quiet for security reasons surrounding this highly classified mission.
• Many other Arab states, after perfunctory anti-Israeli rhetoric, just wish that the issue would go away and not serve as a cause celeb for further radicalization of their citizens.
• The “Euro-wimps” are muted because they don’t want their own Islamic radicals to take to the streets.
• The Russians don’t want to draw attention to the fact that their military hardware is second-rate.
• The United States wants to remain honest brokers for a Middle East peace — so no crowing about the Israelis and their US military hardware (rumored to have been tweaked by the Israelis) has been permitted. Even the liberal US mainstream media has been relatively silent. They don’t want to admit that military action can accomplish anything.
• And most importantly, the collective silence indicates that there is at least a tacit understanding that a nuclear conflict in the Middle East would have no winners — at least for those who don’t see themselves as an instrument of prophecy, like Ahmadinejad, for whom nuclear annihilation is a foreign policy goal.

For those of us that grew up with fallout shelters, the birth of the Emergency Broadcast System, nuclear attack drills at our schools, and MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) as facts of life; we knew that there might be hope for the future when we saw Presidents Reagan and Gorbachev in Iceland shaking hands and pop radio started playing Sting’s hit song Russians, whose refrain is: I hope the Russians love their children too. (Click here to listen to audio excerpt.) Let’s hope for some similar reassuring developments about the Middle East in the near future — the fruits of Condi’s efforts, and in spite of “amateur hour” diplomatic meddling and political grandstanding, like Nancy Pelosi’s summer visit to Damascus. Perhaps, at this moment in history, there are enough inhabitants of the Middle East that love their children to overcome those that don’t in the pursuit of peace.

Much has been made of the Cheney-Rice “split” within the administration over the Israeli attack on Syria and how Secretary Rice held back the Israelis until they just couldn’t wait any longer — as if this is some type of astonishing revelation.  (MSNBC, Sunday Times, Jersalem Post, Al-Ahram, NY Times, Internat’l Herald Tribune, ) By definition, the Secretary of State is the chief diplomat of the nation.  So naturally she has more “invested” in diplomatic solutions.  What’s interesting, if the recent reports are to be given any creedence, is that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates — who, by a priori reasoning, would have more invested in military options — is on Condi’s “side.”

 What doesn’t follow is that after being criticized for a lack of aggressive diplomacy, by “Monday morning quarterbacks” ranging from Nancy Pelosi to Newt Gingrich, is that anyone would be surprised that Dr. Rice is doing just that — actively pursuing diplomatic solutions.  You can’t make some people happy — especially when they’re pursuing their own political agendas, whether on the right or the left.

Other concerns may be figuring into the SoS’s diplomatic and political calculus. 

1. She doesn’t want to repeat Secretary of State Colin Powell’s experience (Remember his UN WMD presentation?) of making a very public pitch for administration policy only to have poor intelligence damage her credibility at home and around the world.  So, of course, she would press the Israeli’s for “rock solid” intelligence, which apparently they obtained, before “signing off” on anything.
2. Diplomatic efforts in the Middle East and Asia would come to a screeching halt if our chief diplomat were viewed as a proponent of the “Sick’em, Israel” policy.  Who let the Dogs out? doesn’t translate well into Chinese, Arabic, or Russian.
3. Whether intentional or not, the “Good Cop — Bad Cop” negotiating technique is in play.  Secretary Rice can honestly say to whomever she is speaking, “Look, you earnestly need to negotiate with me now, because Lord knows what they’re cooking up while I’m out of town.  And if I go back ‘empty handed’ who knows what could happen…”  Since the Left and the Democratic Congress have taken the “Big Stick” out of Condi’s hands, “speaking softly” isn’t as effective as it used to be.

Yesterday’s Jerusalem Post published M. J. Rosenberg’s (Director of the Israel Policy Forum’s Washington Policy Center) op-ed Condi gets it right. (link) Predictably, there will be hard-liners, Israeli and Palestinian, that will reject the author’s thesis.  More than likely, they’ll simultaneously accuse Secretary of State Rice of being a shill for the other side. (Not even John Kerry could “flip-flop” fast enough to accomplish that feat!)

Rice’s position is precisely right. America should not boycott Palestinians who recognize Israel and oppose terrorism just because they serve in a government with people who don’t.

Dr. Rice’s recent accomplishments in the Middle East, however modest and subject to being impeded, or even derailed, by the winds of domestic and regional politics in the US, Israel, the Palestinian Authority, the EU, Russia and, of course, the UN — not to mention the possibility of terrorism at any moment by any of a myriad of “splinter” groups; are on the threshold of breaking the “glass ceiling” of Middle East peace. Rosenberg asserts that the progress made by Condi’s ongoing efforts has set the stage for the equivalent of a Palestinian-Israeli Shanghai Communique.

The original, the joint statement that concluded President Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to Communist China, was short on substance, but nonetheless, arguably, marked the beginning of one of the most important geopolitical shifts of the last century and hastened the end of the Cold War.

Not much happened during the visit.. ..pictures of a US president in Beijing, shaking hands with Chairman Mao and visiting the Great Wall, were more significant than any agreement reached.. ..In fact, it was near-impossible to reach any agreement because the two sides agreed on virtually nothing.

Nixon’s national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, and Mao’s foreign minister, Chou En-Lai, drafted the so-called Shanghai communique which stated that the two sides had met, held “frank and honest” discussions, and hoped to meet again. Unable to state areas of agreement, the communique stated areas of disagreement.. ..Nevertheless, the joint statement changed the world by asserting that despite the differences, the process of reconciliation had begun.

Time will tell if this analogy is correct, but there is cause for cautious optimism if these recent reports are any indication: Time, “Condi Diary: Pushing Peace in the Desert,” Haaretz, “Olmert agrees to resume open-ended talks with Abbas,” Jerusalem Post, Rice: Abbas, Olmert to meet biweekly on ‘political horizon’,” Al-Jazeerah, “Condi’s Delicate Condition, but Hope is on the Horizon”

The admonition to “Pray for the peace of Jerusalem” is as timeless now, as it ever was.

In an effort to keep the recently rekindled Palestinian-Israeli peace process on track, Secretary of State Rice — along with coordinated efforts by others in the International “quartet” (Russia, EU, USA, and the UN) – is cautiously offering support to the Palestinian Authority (PA) after the formation of a coalition government between Fatah and Hamas factions.  The fear is that international aide could be diverted to terrorist activities. On the other hand, the PA cannot be a credible entity with whom negotiations can continue if it cannot even maintain the most basic infrastructure and security.  A total collapse of the PA, a distinct possibility without a resumption of international assistance, would be an open invitation to meddling by Iran, Hezbollah, and other radical organizations.  However, Dr. Rice trimmed approximately 40% from the original funding proposal.  (International Herald Tribune)

“I have reformulated the plan,” Rice said. “It will request less money, precisely because some of the money I would have requested, I could not fully account for.” She said the new plan would take pains to make certain the money did not go to Hamas.

There is starting to be speculation that Dr. Rice is ultimately aiming for a summit prior to 2008, similar to the one that occured in the waning years of the Clinton administration.  This would culminate in the long sought after “two-state solution.”  It has been widely reported that Arafat rejected the final deal offered at Camp David in 2000.  But now with Arafat gone, and a more unified international community that has shown its willingness to cut off aide until good faith efforts are made towards peace, there is hope that this time the outcome will be different.

In 2001, (former-President) Clinton told guests at a party at the Manhattan apartment of former UN ambassador Richard Holbrooke that Arafat called to bid him farewell three days before he left office. “You are a great man,” Arafat said. “The hell I am,” Clinton said.  He responded, “I’m a colossal failure, and you made me one.”  (source)

Any progress that Secretary Rice achieves in the Middle East, where so many others have failed in the past, would most certainly become politicized if it became apparent that her efforts might bear fruit — especially with the Pelosi-Reid gang on Capitol Hill guilty of obstruction of government as they are trying to engineer the administration’s quasi-impeachment with death by a thousand investigations.  This is why Condi 2008 efforts must take a back seat to what she is trying to accomplish as Secretary of State — at this time.  As the Democrats have so clearly revealed in Iraq policy, they are willing to put their political ambitions above the interests of our nation.  If Dr. Rice becomes a candidate prematurely, all of her efforts will become targets of the Left’s attack machines — almost guaranteeing failure now that they have both the House and Senate under their control. 

Ecclesiastes 3:1: To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under heaven.  (Also known as the source for the lyrics from 1965 #1 hit by The Byrds; Turn, Turn, Turn; link) 

Hezbollah anti-Condi banner

It is disturbing to see criticism of Dr. Rice in the conservative blogosphere after her recent keynote address to the American Task Force on Palestine gala in Washington, DC, October 11, 2006. The dinner was held to honor a Republican Arab-American, (Blog editor’s note: Please accept our appologies for using a “hyphenated American” reference, but in this context I felt it was appropriate for Barbara to use it — in spite of Condi’s past criticisms of the practice.) John H. Sununu, Governor of New Hampshire (1983-1989) and White House Chief of Staff for George H. W. Bush (1989-1991). (Do not confuse former Governor Sununu with his son, a Republican Senator from New Hampshire, John E. Sununu.) How quickly forgotten is Condi’s support for Israel during the recent Southern Lebanon invasion. For this, she was “demonized” by Hezbollah,

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A real effort for peace, or disinformation? Visit CAIR’s website and decide for yourself.

In a ploy for media exposure (Nothing wrong with that, we do it, too!), the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) has established “Not in the Name of Islam,” an online petition and website where Muslims can publicly denounce violence done in the name of their religion. This morning a representative of the group appeared on the Fox News program, Fox and Friends - Weekend. Is this what we’ve waited for for so long from the Muslim community in the US? Haven’t we been asking since 9-11, and before, “Where are the ‘moderate’ Muslims that denounce acts of terrorism? Where are the protests in the “Arab street” against those that perpetrate violence in the name of the ‘Religion of Peace?’” Here’s the text of the online pledge:

We, the undersigned Muslims, wish to state clearly that those who commit acts of terror, murder and cruelty in the name of Islam are not only destroying innocent lives, but are also betraying the values of the faith they claim to represent. No injustice done to Muslims can ever justify the massacre of innocent people, and no act of terror will ever serve the cause of Islam. We repudiate and dissociate ourselves from any Muslim group or individual who commits such brutal and un-Islamic acts. We refuse to allow our faith to be held hostage by the criminal actions of a tiny minority acting outside the teachings of both the Quran and the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him.

As it states in the Quran: ‘Oh you who believe, stand up firmly for justice, as witnesses to God, even if it be against yourselves, or your parents, or your kin, and whether it be against rich or poor; for God can best protect both. Do not follow any passion, lest you not be just. And if you distort or decline to do justice, verily God is well-acquainted with all that you do.’ (Quran 4:135)

While this may seem like a positive development at first glance, a little investigation reveals some disturbing associations of the CAIR, its officers, its financiers and the public relations tactics they use to further their political and religious agenda — an agenda that seems to be more ominous than their publicly stated one, as a “nonprofit 501(c)(4), grassroots civil rights and advocacy group.”

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In a political gambit trying to position himself for the 2008 Republican primary by distancing himself from Bush (43) , Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel again parts company with the Bush administration and offers his unsolicited advice about the Middle East. (link)

If we get enough donors for an extra set of “brass ones” like we’re getting for Democratic Governor Bill Richardson, maybe we should send them to Chuck.

Here’s a modest proposal, let’s establish an ad hoc committee to award him, along with other deserving recipients in the future, the Jim Jeffords Memorial Brass Cojones Award. (OK, Jim’s not dead yet, but his political career is after he got into bed — in a non-Clintonesque, political kind of way — with Tom Daschle only 5 days after voting for President Bush’s tax cuts on May 26, 2001.). In return for his becoming a so-called “independent” and giving control of the Senate to the Democrats, 50-49-1, during the first half of the Bush administration; he was responsible for stalling much of the Republican agenda. Although it is small consolation, Tom Daschle and the Democrats lost their grip on the Senate in the 2002 midterm elections when Tom himself got the electoral “pink slip” from the voters. Jim abandoned the Republican Party after 35 years, and in less than 2 years lost his chairmanship — the “bait” for his party switch in the first place.

Now, after announcing his plans to retire and not seek re-election in 2006; Jim’s got one last “parting shot” for the rest of the country. Although he hasn’t endorsed him yet, and may not ever, Jim is leaving his Senate seat open for Bernie Sanders, self-described “democratic socialist,” but ostensibly an “independent.” Greg Parke, a Vermont Condi admirerer, retired Air Force officer (Although, he looks young enough to be recruit!), is a Vermont Republican hoping to help Bernie find out about the joys of political unemployment this November. (link)

Are there any other nominees for the this “award? or volunteers for the committee?

How strange, an offensive cartoon about somebody in the Middle East appears in a European newspaper (Norway), but there are no riots or burning embassies — as was the case in Denmark. What happened? In Europe, it’s apparently OK to publish offensive cartoons about Israel and not even apologize. (BBC)