Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice disappointed a lot of Russians who thought that they might get the chance to see her don ice skates before she left after her recent visit. Wisely, she demurred. Had her “on ice” performance been anything less than perfection, the most embarrassing moment would have been turned into “Condi’s ice follies” and been plastered on front pages around the globe. (”One diplomatic encounter - and hold the ice,” Independent Online, South Africa) Likewise, she is downplaying her chances of success in the Middle East as she heads toward the region for this week’s shuttle diplomacy. (CTV, Canada)

However, in light of recent events in Syria — an Israeli air strike on a military installation that apparently was a site being used to further Syria’s nuclear ambitions — it is astonishing that Condi’s trip is even taking place. More astonishing is the deafening silence from all sides after the fact.  (NYT, “Israel Struck Syrian Nuclear Project, Analysts Say”)

The silence indicates; that other than the likes of Iran’s Ahmadinejad, Al Qaeda, Saudi Arabia’s hard line Wahabis, the Muslim Brotherhood, etc.; there might be a small ray of sanity illuminating the Middle East.

• Syria’s quiet because it doesn’t want to publicly acknowledge that their air defenses are obviously ineffective.
• Israel’s quiet for security reasons surrounding this highly classified mission.
• Many other Arab states, after perfunctory anti-Israeli rhetoric, just wish that the issue would go away and not serve as a cause celeb for further radicalization of their citizens.
• The “Euro-wimps” are muted because they don’t want their own Islamic radicals to take to the streets.
• The Russians don’t want to draw attention to the fact that their military hardware is second-rate.
• The United States wants to remain honest brokers for a Middle East peace — so no crowing about the Israelis and their US military hardware (rumored to have been tweaked by the Israelis) has been permitted. Even the liberal US mainstream media has been relatively silent. They don’t want to admit that military action can accomplish anything.
• And most importantly, the collective silence indicates that there is at least a tacit understanding that a nuclear conflict in the Middle East would have no winners — at least for those who don’t see themselves as an instrument of prophecy, like Ahmadinejad, for whom nuclear annihilation is a foreign policy goal.

For those of us that grew up with fallout shelters, the birth of the Emergency Broadcast System, nuclear attack drills at our schools, and MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) as facts of life; we knew that there might be hope for the future when we saw Presidents Reagan and Gorbachev in Iceland shaking hands and pop radio started playing Sting’s hit song Russians, whose refrain is: I hope the Russians love their children too. (Click here to listen to audio excerpt.) Let’s hope for some similar reassuring developments about the Middle East in the near future — the fruits of Condi’s efforts, and in spite of “amateur hour” diplomatic meddling and political grandstanding, like Nancy Pelosi’s summer visit to Damascus. Perhaps, at this moment in history, there are enough inhabitants of the Middle East that love their children to overcome those that don’t in the pursuit of peace.

Much has been made of the Cheney-Rice “split” within the administration over the Israeli attack on Syria and how Secretary Rice held back the Israelis until they just couldn’t wait any longer — as if this is some type of astonishing revelation.  (MSNBC, Sunday Times, Jersalem Post, Al-Ahram, NY Times, Internat’l Herald Tribune, ) By definition, the Secretary of State is the chief diplomat of the nation.  So naturally she has more “invested” in diplomatic solutions.  What’s interesting, if the recent reports are to be given any creedence, is that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates — who, by a priori reasoning, would have more invested in military options — is on Condi’s “side.”

 What doesn’t follow is that after being criticized for a lack of aggressive diplomacy, by “Monday morning quarterbacks” ranging from Nancy Pelosi to Newt Gingrich, is that anyone would be surprised that Dr. Rice is doing just that — actively pursuing diplomatic solutions.  You can’t make some people happy — especially when they’re pursuing their own political agendas, whether on the right or the left.

Other concerns may be figuring into the SoS’s diplomatic and political calculus. 

1. She doesn’t want to repeat Secretary of State Colin Powell’s experience (Remember his UN WMD presentation?) of making a very public pitch for administration policy only to have poor intelligence damage her credibility at home and around the world.  So, of course, she would press the Israeli’s for “rock solid” intelligence, which apparently they obtained, before “signing off” on anything.
2. Diplomatic efforts in the Middle East and Asia would come to a screeching halt if our chief diplomat were viewed as a proponent of the “Sick’em, Israel” policy.  Who let the Dogs out? doesn’t translate well into Chinese, Arabic, or Russian.
3. Whether intentional or not, the “Good Cop — Bad Cop” negotiating technique is in play.  Secretary Rice can honestly say to whomever she is speaking, “Look, you earnestly need to negotiate with me now, because Lord knows what they’re cooking up while I’m out of town.  And if I go back ‘empty handed’ who knows what could happen…”  Since the Left and the Democratic Congress have taken the “Big Stick” out of Condi’s hands, “speaking softly” isn’t as effective as it used to be.