Until Fred Thompson became a candidate with his declaration on the Leno Show, conservatives - for the most part - didn’t have a “first-tier” candidate in the Republican primary that really got them excited about the upcoming 2008 Presidential race in spite of the general recognition that a 2008 Democratic victory would be a tragedy for nation.  (Fred ‘08 website)

Unfortunately, it takes an actual candidate to win an election.  In the US we are only allowed to vote “for” a candidate and not “against,”  “anybody but Hillary,” or “none of the above.”

Rudy and Mitt, for many on the Right, are “compromise candidates.”  It isn’t that Rudy and Mitt are disliked on the Right.  On the contrary, they enjoy wide respect for being “Yankee Republicans” that have managed to get elected in the nearly “solid blue” Northeast.  That said, they are not viewed (by many in the GOP) as “brethren” in a struggle that predates the “Reagan Revolution.”  Furthermore, their recent conciliatory moves to the Right are viewed more as expedient political maneuvers, rather true “conversions” to the conservative point of view.

The lack of a candidate that “connected” with the so-called “Republican base” allowed Fred to remain the “stealth” candidate for months.  He has had the luxury of seeming very “presidential” by avoiding the primary race’s “squabbles.”  In the absence of definitively stated policy positions - made necessary during the “typical” primary process - the former senator continues to make the most of his Law and Order television persona, Arthur Branch, a southern conservative turned Big Apple prosecutor.  (Shouldn’t that story line have premiered on the SciFi Channel first?)  As such, he has been portrayed week, after week, season, after season, as the wise, all-knowing, “down home” and folksy older (but not elderly) boss that explains to his urban, mostly liberal staff, the conservative positions of the day using rural southern anecdotes that are conveniently, debated, and poignantly resolved in the 60-minute prime time episodes of Law and Order.  We doubt that NBC ever imagined that they were creating a conservative icon when the created Thompson’s character.

But there is a cloud on Thompson’s horizon - politically and personally.  Could a page from the Democratic history book, Paul Tsongas’ presidential campaign of 1992, be repeated?  (NY Sun, “Thompson’s Cancer Stirs Memories of Tsongas” and National Review, “The Tsongas Problem”)  Paul was Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party primary rival who made the contest a real “horse race,” until he suddenly dropped out.   Like Tsongas, Thompson returned to politics to run for President after a stint in the Senate.  Also like Tsongas, when he entered the race, relatively positive prognoses were stated by the candidate, his staff, and a variety of “experts.”   What’s not known is whether the parallels between Thompson and Tsongas include the deceptions (or the gentler description “lack of clarity” used by Tsongas) made by the 1992 Tsongas campaign regarding his recurrence of cancer and his prognosis.  (Red State, Fred Thompson’s Statement, “What you need to know — Facts about my cancer”

Nobody on his deathbed ever said, “I wish I had spent more time at the office.”   Paul Tsongas   Could Fred have shared this sentiment with Paul and then have left the Senate for an acting career?

Interestingly, Paul Tsongas died January 18, 1997, in what would have been the final days of his administration had he won the 1992 election.  (If this would have happened in the Clinton administration, think of how many pardons he never could have sold, er… granted.)  Does anybody doubt that Tsongas’ ability to govern effectively would have been affected during the final months of his administration as he was dying?  Could the same thing happen to Thompson?  Granted, the statistics on survival of patients diagnosed with Thompson’s relatively rare form of lymphoma are encouraging, but what about patients’ subjected high levels of stress - you know, like serving as President of the United States?  That’s where the theory of Fred’s “Magic Carpet” comes in to play.  (Jeremy D. Mayer at Politico.com, “Is Death on the Ballot in 2008?”)

The closer Fred Thompson gets to the nomination, the greater attention will be paid to his VP choice — especially in light of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll just released (Rudy 30%, Fred 23%, McCain 15%, Romney 10%, Huckabee 4%).  This is the so called “magic carpet track” into the Oval Office, the Vice-Presidency on a ticket with a partner that has a fair chance of not completing their term in office.  At anytime, a future President Thompson (or Giuliani, a cancer survivor himself) could declare that he is unable to carry out his duties and elevate the VP to the Presidency.  Is this a likely scenario?  We think so.

Another issue for the Thompson campaign is his “gender gap.”  In the WSJ/NBC poll, he only had a little more than half the support among Republican women, 16%, than he showed among Republican men, 29%.  This gap is made even more urgent by Rudy’s strong support among female Republicans in the same poll (25% male, 35% female).  If Fred is the eventual nominee and doesn’t take decisive action, we suspect that this gender gap would grow larger during the general election.  Although a female VP choice is a possibility for either candidate, this makes us think that Thompson would be more likely to choose a female VP than Rudy.  For Fred, it is absolutely essential that he improve his support among women for the primary and the general election.  Is Condi on Fred’s “short list?”   Or someone else’s?  Makes one wonder, doesn’t it?  (Interesting Trivia: Both Condi and Fred are native Alabamans.)

Regardless of your political philosophy, party affiliation, psychosocial milieu, etc. there is one core principal upon which the vast majority of Americans can agree: The US Presidency is not, or at least should not, be “for sale.”

Oh, for sure, many of us constantly complain that “it’s all about the money.”  We see presidential hopefuls spend endless hours pursuing campaign cash and reporting “the take” to the media (and the FEC and IRS) as a way of “keeping score.”  But at the end of the day, whether you’re a Communist, a Klansman, a Democrat, a Libertarian, or a Republican; everyone’s participation in the presidential political process every four years confirms that, at some level, we all, for the most part, believe that the US Presidency is “up for grabs” and not “for sale.”  While cash is important, there is still the underlying belief that issues and ideology play, at least, some role in selecting our next chief executive.  Otherwise, why bother participating in the process at all?

The authors of Freakonomics are practitioners of the “dismal science,” a.k.a “economics.”  While their conclusions have certainly come under very close scrutiny and criticism, from the Left and the Right on a variety of issues (most notably abortion and its relationship to crime), these authors provide a unique perspective on the world around us.  While we don’t agree with all of the conclusions, or lines of reasoning, promoted by Freakonomics, there is one of their observations about campaign spending and the outcome of elections that caught our interest.

In our travels around the nation to a variety of political gatherings, we have been the target of those critics who seem to take great joy in pointing out that Dr. Rice isn’t a “serious candidate” because she hasn’t “joined the $100 million dollar club” or reached some other arbitrary benchmark of campaign finance.  Perhaps, these individuals are just trying to relieve their own insecurities about their “candidate of the day.”  Does anybody remember the presidential aspirations of the former Senator George Allen?

We provide the following audio excerpt from Freakonomics as an antidote to these “disciples of dollars.”  (Click here to listen to the Windows Media audio file.)  In the Information Age with more of us getting our political news from so-called alternative media, we believe that there are millions of Americans who are still able to make, and will make, the decision about who will be their next Commander in Chief based upon the candidate, their record of achievement, their judgment, and who is most in agreement with their positions on a broad range of issues. 

So, to answer our own rhetorical question: “No, the Presidency isn’t for sale.”   Of course, cash can determine the style in which a candidate travels on their own “Road to the White House,” but whether she arrives at Pennsylvania Avenue in a Gulfstream V, or a repainted campaign bus - the point is that she “has arrived.”

So, the next time you hear, “Condi can’t be our next President.  She doesn’t have (fill in the blank) millions of dollars.”  Refer them to this audio excerpt of Freakonomics.  (audio)

(Freakonomics is available in a variety of formats: Hardcover: Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Books-a-Million, Audio CD: Amazon, Books-a-Million; Large Print: Amazon, Barnes & Noble; Español, Spanish-language paperback: Books-a-Million; downloadable audio at Audible.com)

     In the latest Zogby poll,  Condoleezza Rice finished foutrth behind the McCain Romney, and Giuliani.   This is great considering she hasn’t declared.  The big news, though,  is in the same poll,  she finishes third among self-identified “conservative Republicans”, behind  Romney and Gingrich.

     Why is the conservative Republican poll important?   The conservatives are still looking for a candidate they can rally behind.  A liberal GOP candidate will not energize the conservative vote, even if he runs against Hillary Clinton. Condoleezza Rice would be an excellent choice for conservatives.  She has both pro-life and pro-Second Amendment views.  She is also the only one who can continue leading the “War on terror”,  no training required.

   I think she can also serve to unite the RINOs and conservatives of the GOP.     The RINOs will enjoy making history and heading off Hillary or Obama.  Condi doesn’t have the “lightning rod” factor like other conservative candidates.   it would be more difficult for Dems to paint a caricature of Condi as a racist-sexist-homophobe conservative. The conservatives will enjoy having an experienced , principled Republican to continue protecting our country.

   Condi is a win-win for all of the GOP.

Negative campaigning is just a fact of life these days on the American political landscape.  Once a political figure starts being viewed as a potential candidate, it is almost a certainty that the attacks and mudslinging will follow.  Take this CBS News graphic, for example.  Newt isn’t even declared and he’s included in negative mainstream media coverage!

When Condi becomes a candidate will she be able to become the next Teflon President?  (Reagan was the first.)  See our homepage post on Anita Kumar’s St. Petersburg Times article.

What are the most likely areas that the jackals of the liberal media machine will focus on?  How can we best prepare for the negative attacks — because you know it’s coming.

Rudy Giuliani, dubbed “America’s Mayor” by none other than French President Jacque Chirac, has consistently come out at, or near, the top of polls for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. These same polls have Senator McCain and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rounding out the top three. The rest of the pack are generally “single digit footnotes” to the poll. Until recently, the relative positions of this “triad” have changed very little. These results, in our opinion, leave Dr. Rice as the clear front runner. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But consider the recent drop in Senator McCain’s numbers in the Marist-MSNBC poll as more, and more, Republicans have become familiar with his positions as a “maverick” Republican and are suspect of his attempts to cozy up to the religious right. (This only confirms the overwhelming expressions of disapproval for McCain that we’ve seen and heard at grassroots Republican gatherings for the past two years.) And while we think Rudy is a great “New York Republican” behind whom we all rallied on 9-11, he is “fatally flawed” for the national Republican presidential nomination. Why? Just read the first paragraph of Rudy does New Hampshire, an article in PoliticsNH.com.

Rudy Giuliani - the twice-divorced supporter of abortion rights, gay rights, and gun control who has embraced Mario Cuomo and donned drag - just might have been smiling when he wrapped up his first New Hampshire swing in two years.

The basic plausibility of a Giuliani bid for the 2008 Republican nomination rests on the righteous force of his 9/11 credentials somehow driving conservative primary voters and caucus-goers - for the first time in the modern era - to subordinate their rock-ribbed social values to other considerations.

“Bill asked me to show you the subway system.” Although the polls indicate that Rudy could throw Hillary in front of New York’s, and the nation’s, political train in 2008, he’ll still have to win the nomination to be in a position to give her “a push.” See the full-size image here at About.com.

(more…)

The results of a recent Marist poll seem to reflect the rejection of John McCain’s maverick image as he has broken with the administration over detainee treatment and other issues, in spite of the compromises that eventually settled the disputes. The top three Republican candidates are still Rudy (22%), Condi (20%) and McCain (15%), but the trends and relative numbers reveal more than just “who won.” (Angus-Reid)

First, Rudy and McCain, although they haven’t officially announced, are clearly “on the circuit” in early primary states. Condi is the only one of the trio discouraging rumors of her candidacy, yet her support remains solid as she has taken center stage in the political battles that are leading up to the 2008 election. Naysayers about her ability to withstand the rigors of a campaign are starting to take note as she has gone mano a mano with both Clintons in the past several weeks. Of course, if Hillary is the Democratic candidate, this is exactly what she’ll be faced with up until Election Day.

Second, the drop in McCain’s numbers is starting to confirm what we’ve been seeing and hearing for the past two years but not reflected in the polls — that McCain’s “loose canon” and “maverick” image are not appreciated in the Republican Party regardless of his strong general election numbers and fund raising abilities. Even so, many of us at still confused by the incongruity of poll results that keep McCain in the top 3 and widespread negative reactions to McCain at Republican gatherings.

Third, even with Rudy’s strong showing this early in the election cycle, his liberal positions make his nomination doubtful. If he did run, a destructive challenge from the right would surely occur. That, followed with the Clinton Attack machine, could take a lot of the electoral luster off of “America’s mayor.”

Lastly, although we’re biased, we think that this poll bodes very well for Condi 2008.

Last month at the Iowa State Fair, there was a Presidential straw poll. In true Iowa fashion, the “Cast Your Kernel” poll had a corn theme. Channel 13 WHO-TV sponsored the poll . they wrote the names of 10 potential Democrats and 10 potential Republican presidential candidates on hard kernels of corn. People could take a kernel of their choice and place it in a jar.

Condoleezza Rice tied for second with Giuliani on the Republican side, each receiving 20% . McCain came in first with 24%.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton tied for first with 33% each of the Democratic kernels.

Read the whole story here

Iowan Condistas: we need your help to spread the good word! Sign up on our website. If you’d like to help plan an event in your hometown, e-mail me at: Illinois@4condi.com. We have everything you need: info, talking points, balloons, stickers, and buttons.

Wes Fowler

According to a Gallup poll released this morning, Condi is 2nd as the Republican Presidential nominee!!!

The poll asked Republicans who they found as a favorable Presidential nominee for 2008. Giuliani came in 1st with 73% of respondents describing him as a favorable nominee. Condi came in second with

This is big news for us because Gallup is one of the most respected polls in the country. This is a very important poll!

We need to keep the momentum going. Speaking of which, if you need any Condi gear: bumper stickers, t-shirts, hats, or “I Like Condi” buttons, feel free to e-mail me at: illinois@4condi.com

Wes Fowler

Illinois Chair

Americans for Dr. Rice